Abstract
At the beginning of July 2020, a series of detonations in the Iranian nuclear fuel enrich- ment plant in Natanz triggered fears of a Stuxnet 2.0.1 The Stuxnet computer worm, which physically destroyed Iranian nuclear centrifuges in 2010, is considered by many as the starting point for the smoldering cyber conflict between Iran and the USA.2 Stuxnet is still considered to be one of the most aggressive cyber attacks to date because it was the first digital malware to cause damage in physical space, thus reaching a new level of intensity. In the words of former NSA director Gen. Michael Hayden, “someone crossed the Rubicon” with Stuxnet.3
The conflict dyad USA-Iran is particularly interesting from the perspective of cyber secu- rity research and international relations since disputes are carried out in the cyber- and information space as well as in the conventional, physical domain. The interaction be- tween the two cyber powers has a “cross-domain” dimension, which has been rarely stud- ied so far.
Since 2018, the USA has a new cyber security policy of “persistent engagement” that some regard as potentially escalating.4 In addition, the conflict escalated in early 2020 as a con- sequence of the targeted killing of Iranian General Soleimani in January. In view of the US presidential elections in 2020, many security experts expected costly and destructive cyber retaliatory strikes by Iran as the Islamic Republic is now considered a serious cyber power that does not shy away from aggressive, destructive attacks. Since Iran has shown interest in targeting critical infrastructures in the US, a potentially damaging retaliatory cyber attack cannot be ruled out completely.5 The likelihood of a destructive cyber retalia- tion in response to a conventional attack is uncertain and research on escalation dynamics in cyberspace and across domains is still in its infancy.
Citation
@article{https://doi.org/10.18449/2020wp13,
doi = {10.18449/2020WP13},
url = {https://www.swp-berlin.org/publications/products/arbeitspapiere/WP_Schulze_December20_Cyber_Escalation_Research_01.pdf},
author = {Schulze, Matthias and Kerscher, Josephine and Bochtler, Paul and {Stiftung Wissenschaft Und Politik}},
language = {en},
title = {Cyber escalation},
journal = {Working Paper / Research Division International Security},
publisher = {Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), German Institute for International and Security Affairs},
year = {2020}
}